Prediction of daphnid survival after in situ exposure to complex mixtures

Baas, J., Willems, J., Jager, T., Kraak, M.H.S., Vandenbrouck, T. and Kooijman, S. A. L. M. 2009.
Prediction of daphnid survival after in situ exposure to complex mixtures.
Environ. Sci. Technol. 43: 6064 - 6069.


We applied a mechanistically based model to predict the effects of complex consisting of a large number of compounds with different modes of action as occurring in the field. We validated the model by comparing predicted survival with observed survival of in situ exposed laboratory cultured daphnids to complexly polluted surface waters, in which over 90 chemical contaminants were measured,. Using the chemical composition of the surface water at each sampling site, we calculated whether or not any of the individual or shared no effect concentrations were exceeded. If so we calculated the effect on survival. In 34 out of 37 cases (92%) we made a correct prediction of survival and mortality. In the case of mortality we could also appoint the compound or group of compounds causing the effect. It is concluded that proposed mechanistically based model accurately predicts effects on organisms in the field, given the chemical composition of the water. Hence it is a powerful tool to link the chemical and ecological status of surface waters.

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This paper is highlighted by Science for Environment Policy; DG Environment New Alert Service