NVTB Symposium 23 April 2012

New developments in mathematical biology:
DEB applications and epidemiology

Please check this site for possible changes in location or additional information.

23 April is St George's day. Galocybe gambosum is called St George's mushroom, because it used to appear on this day.

Place

The morning program is in room F647 (building-section F, floor 6), Science Building,
Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam: de Boelelaan 1085 or 1081. Map for Faculty of Sciences

The afternoon program is in the aula of the Main Building.

Program on Monday 23 April 2012

09:30 coffee
09:50 Bas Kooijman: welcome
10:00 Jean-Christophe Poggiale: Mathematical formulation of biological processes in ecology: a matter of scale
10:30 Marianne Alunno-Bruscia: Five years of DEB application in aquaculture by the AQUAdeb group
11:00 coffee
11:15 Carlos Braumann: Population extinction times and consequences of an incorrect model specification
11:45 Nico Stollenwerk: Dynamic noise, chaos and parameter estimation in population biology
12:15 lunch at VU restaurant (ground floor main building)
13:45 Starrlight Augustine: Metabolic programming of zebra fish, Danio rerio, uncovered;
15:15 coffee/tea
15:45 Maira Aguiar: Rich dynamics in multi-strain models: non-linear dynamics and deterministic chaos in dengue fever epidemiolgy
17:15 reception by Starrlight + Maira
18:00 party for invitees by Starrlight and Maira




10:00 Jean-Christophe Poggiale
Laboratory of Microbiology Geochemistry and Marine Ecology, Marseille University, France
Mathematical formulation of biological processes in ecology : a matter of scale

In this talk, I present some work dealing with the choice of different mathematical expressions satisfying similar ecological assumptions and analyze the consequences of these choices.The ideas are illustrated with communities models. These examples raise the importance of the choice of a mathematical formulation in a model and introduce the concept of structural sensitivity. I will provide some tools to measure the structural sensitivity and some criteria to detect it. I then discuss the role of theory to sustain modeling biological processes in ecology, by providing formulations based on a coherent set of assumptions instead of quality of data fitting.

10:30 Marianne Alunno-Bruscia
PFOM / UMR 100 "Physiologie & Ecophysiologie des Mollusques Marins", IFREMER (French Research Institute for Exploitation of the Sea), Argenton-en-Landunvez, France
Five years of DEB application in aquaculture by the AQUAdeb group

I will summarise the progress made during the 5 years running time of the AquaDEB project. The main scientific objectives in AquaDEB were
  1. to study and compare the sensitivity of aquatic species (mainly molluscs and fish) to environmental variability within the context of DEB theory for metabolic organisation, and
  2. to evaluate the inter-relationships between different biological levels (individual, population, ecosystem) and temporal scales (life cycle, population dynamics, evolution).
AquaDEB phase I focussed on quantifying bio-energetic processes of various aquatic species (e.g. molluscs, fish, crustaceans, algae) and phase II on:
  1. comparing of energetic and physiological strategies among species through the DEB parameter values and identifying the factors responsible for any differences in bioenergetics and physiology;
  2. considering different scenarios of environmental disruption (excess of nutrients, diffuse or massive pollution, exploitation by man, climate change) to forecast effects on growth, reproduction and survival of key species;
  3. scaling up the models for a few species from the individual level up to the level of evolutionary processes.
Apart from the three special issues in the Journal of Sea Research including the DEBIB collaboration (see vol. 65 issue 2), a theme issue on DEB theory appeared in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B (vol 365, 2010); a large number of publications were produced; the third edition of the DEB book appeared (2010); opensource software was substantially expanded (over 1000 functions); a large open-source systematic collection ecophysiological data and DEB parameters has been set up; and a series of DEB tele-courses and symposia have been further developed and expanded, bringing together people from a wide variety of backgrounds (experimental and theoretical biologists, mathematicians, engineers, physicists, chemists, environmental sciences, computer scientists) and training levels in DEB theory. Some 15 PhD students graduated during the running time of AquaDEB with a strong DEB component in their projects and over 15 will complete their thesis within a few years. Five post-doctoral projects were also part of the training network. Several universities (Brest, Marseille, Lisbon, Bergen) included DEB courses in their standard curriculum for biology students.

Click here for an extensive summary; the project won the IFREMER-price for scientific excellence in 2011.

11:15 Carlos Braumann
Dept of Mathematics, Évora University, Portugal
Population extinction times and consequences of an incorrect model specification

We consider stochastic differential equations to model the growth of a population in a randomly varying environment. Traditionally, the models used are based on classical deterministic models, such as the logistic or the Gompertz model, taken as approximate models of the "true" (usually unknown) mean growth rate. How accurate are our conclusions, based on an approximate such model, differ from the conclusions based on the "true" model? We will look at the asymptotic behavior and at the mean and variance of the time to population extinction. This will shed some light on whether we can trust, with some degree of accuracy, the predictions based on the approximate model, certainly a simpler model to deal with.

11:45 Nico Stollenwerk
Centro de Mathematica e Aplicações Fundamentais, Lisbon University
Dynamic noise, chaos and parameter estimation in population biology

We revisit the parameter estimation framework for population biological dynamical systems, and apply it to calibrate various models in epidemiology with empirical time series, namely influenza and dengue fever. When it comes to more complex models such as multi-strain dynamics to describe the virus-host interaction in dengue fever, even the most recently developed parameter estimation techniques, such as maximum likelihood iterated filtering, reach their computational limits. However, the first results of parameter estimation with data on dengue fever from Thailand indicate a subtle interplay between stochasticity and the deterministic skeleton. The deterministic system on its own already displays complex dynamics up to deterministic chaos and coexistence of multiple attractors.

Click here for an extensive summary



13:45 Starrlight Augustine
IRSN and dept Theoretical Biology, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam
Metabolic programming of zebra fish, Danio rerio, uncovered; physiological performance as explained by Dynamic Energy Budget theory and life cycle consequences of uranium induced perturbations
Double graduation with Marseille University

13:45 welcome by Bauke Oudega (Rector Magnificus) in Aula
promotores Bas Kooijman & Christelle Adam, copromotor Beatrice Gagnaire
13:45 Introduction by Starrlight Augustine
13:55 Prof. Dr. J.-C. (Jean-Christophe) Poggiale
14:05 Dr. M. (Marianne) Alunno-Bruscia
14:15 Prof. Dr. H. (Herman) Spaink
14:25 Dr. J. (Juliette) Legler
14:35 Prof. Dr. J. (Jaap) van der Meer
14:45 end of defence
15:15 end of ceremony

15:45 Maira Aguiar
Centro de Mathematica e Aplicações Fundamentais, Lisbon University
Rich dynamics in multi-strain models: non-linear dynamics and deterministic chaos in dengue fever epidemiolgy
Double graduation with Lisbon University

15:45 welcome by Bauke Oudega (Rector Magnificus) in Aula
promotores Bas Kooijman & Fancisco Dionisio, copromotor Bob Kooi
15:45 Introduction by Maira Aguiar
15:55 Prof. Dr. E. (Eduardo) Massad
16:05 Prof. Dr. C. (Carlos) Braumann
16:15 Prof. Dr. J.-C. (Jean-Christophe) Poggiale
16:25 Dr. D. (Daniel) Bontje
16:35 Prof. Dr. J. (Jaap) van der Meer
16:45 end of defence
17:15 end of ceremony; drinks

Interest in DEB tele course 2013? Go to the DEB information page